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June 12, 2025

Chart USD/JPY Update: Settled back in consolidation
Paying Article

12 June 2025 - 01:10

Turned lower after failing to sustain gains above the 145.00 level to extend rejection from the 145.46 high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating below .6080, current year high
Paying Article

12 June 2025 - 00:42

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the .6080, 5 June current year high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6550, fresh year high
Paying Article

12 June 2025 - 00:29

Edged up to fresh year high at the .6550 Fibonacci level before settling back to consolidate at the .6500 level

June 11, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 11 Jun
Freemium Article

11 June 2025 - 19:54

Overview - The USD was softer after a weak US CPI, though less so against riskier currencies as equities struggled. 

Psychology for major markets Jun 12
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 19:29

USD softer after weak US CPI.

USD flows: US-China trade progress fails to impress
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 19:17

Even with a surprisingly subdued CPI to welcome, equities have not been as positive on the US-China trade progress as was Trump, with China’s 6-month limit on rare-earth export licenses suggesting they wish to maintain some leverage. USD weakness has resumed after the post-CPI dip was followed by

U.S. Budget Deficit falls in May, Tariffs explaining over half of the narrowing
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 18:28

May saw a budget deficit of $316bn, down from $347.1bn in May 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1364.7bn is up from $1202.3bn in the eight months to May 2024. The 12-month average has however slipped below $2trillion for the first time in the current fiscal year. The deficit in

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FOMC Preview for June 18: No change in rates or dots, only marginal changes to statement and forecasts
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 16:01

The June 18 FOMC meeting looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. We expect only marginal changes to May’s statement and the Fed’s median forecasts from March, with no change at all in the median dots on rates.  Chairman Powell at the press conference may welcome recent signal

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 11th
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 15:55

UK GDP Still Overstating Activity
A correction from a weak April for U.S. May PPI 
USD/JPY Stays in Consolidation zone

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Freemium Article

11 June 2025 - 15:40

Little change, as prices extend consolidation following the test above congestion resistance at 1.370

Chart AUD/USD Update: Fresh 2025 year high
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 13:45

Choppy trade has posted a fresh 2025 year high just beneath strong resistance at the 0.6550 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Posting fresh 2025 year highs
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 13:29

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 166.00 has given way to a break to a fresh 2025 year high at 166.29

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending choppy trade
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 13:19

The retest above congestion resistance at 145.00 has met selling interest at 145.45

Preview: Due June 12 - U.S. May PPI - A correction from a weak April, which may be revised
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 13:07

We expect May PPI to see a modest bounce from a weak April with a 0.2% rise overall and a 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.2%. April fell by 0.5% overall and ex food and energy, but by only 0.1% ex food, energy and trade.  A weak March was revised u

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U.S. May CPI - Little tariff pass-through, with inflationary pressures elsewhere fading
Freemium Article

11 June 2025 - 12:59

May CPI has surprised significantly to the downside, up only 0.1% both headline and core, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.08% and 0.13%. The data is subdued across the board, with commodities ex food and energy unchanged despite tariffs and services ex energy on the low side of tre

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 12:16

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation around strong support at the 17.7150 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies under pressure
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 11:30

Little change

Chartbook: UK Chart FTSE 100 Update: Back at highs following April volatility
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 11:21

The anticipated pullback extended below 8000 in highly volatile early-April trade

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 11th
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 11:10

U.S. - China Trade Talk In Focus
Tariff impact still modest, but starting to build for U.S. May CPI
DXY Likely to Dominate Movement

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 10:21

Cautious trade has given way to a test of congestion resistance at 0.9400

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SNB Preview (Jun 19): Toying With Being Negative?
Freemium Article

11 June 2025 - 09:23

A further 25 bp cut (to zero) in the SNB policy rate on Jun 19 now looks almost certain.  Weak(er) business surveys suggest that the tariff threat is both tangible and growing and this is before key Swiss pharmaceutical exports come under fire.  Meanwhile, there is the strong currency where FX int

Chart USD/CHF Update: Cautious trade
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 08:23

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Cautious trade - background studies improving
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 08:17

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation above support at 99.00

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 08:02

Cautious trade is giving way to fresh tests higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
Paying Article

11 June 2025 - 07:44

Still little change, as intraday studies continue to tick down and extend pressure on congestion support at 1.1400